Description du sujet de thèse

The development of renewable energies is an imperative in the fight against global warming. Offshore wind power is booming in France, and is set to grow even more in the decades to come. However, the development of onshore and offshore wind farms is having an impact on biodiversity, not only by destroying the habitats of species that are sometimes protected, but also by causing death to flying species (birds and bats) through collisions with turbine blades or masts. This new pressure comes on top of many other pressures that seabirds, in particular, are already facing.
Reconciling the development of offshore wind farms with the conservation of seabirds requires essential spatial planning. To be relevant, this planning must be based on a detailed understanding and prediction, in time and space, of the impacts or risks that seabird populations exposed to this new anthropogenic pressure will suffer, in addition to other existing threats, such as accidental catches by fisheries, food resource scarcity linked to overfishing or climate change, epidemic episodes (influenza, etc.), and the impact of the new anthropogenic pressure on seabird populations, in addition to other existing threats, such as accidental catches by fisheries, food resource scarcity linked to overfishing or climate change, and epidemic episodes (influenza, etc.). To be relevant, this planning must be based on a detailed understanding and prediction, in time and space, of the impacts or risks that seabird populations exposed to this new anthropogenic pressure will suffer, in addition to other existing threats, such as accidental capture by fisheries, food resource scarcity linked to overfishing or climate change, epidemic episodes (avian flu, avian cholera) or the occurrence of extreme climatic events. The accumulation of these different pressures, particularly from human activities, is bound to change over the coming decades, partly because of the modifications that the marine environment will undergo in response to climate change and changes in use of the environment, and partly because offshore wind power will continue to develop strongly. However, there are many uncertainties surrounding the evolution of these different pressures. To better predict the response of seabird populations to the various anthropogenic pressures, in order to help plan offshore wind farms, we need to adopt a methodology based on the modelling of plausible scenarios that explicitly take into account the possible evolution of the various pressures.
The BIRDYNAMIC II project, financed by the French national offshore wind farm observatory, aims to develop these scenarios to better anticipate the evolution of seabird populations in the coming years.
The PhD student will be part of a team of four engineers/doctoral/post-doctoral researchers recruited for the 3-year project. He/she will be tasked with (i) participating in the development of an individual-centric model combining wind farm avoidance and collisions to model the demographic impact of offshore wind farm development on bird populations, (ii) developing a panel of plausible scenarios of possible changes in pressure on these bird populations, with the aim of better predicting their potential future, (iii) publishing the results of methodological and ecological developments in the two previous areas. To do this, he will draw on an initial model developed as part of the BIRDMOVE project, as well as on work carried out as part of the BIRDYNAMIC project, both of which are coordinated by the scientific leaders of BIRDYNAMIC II. The PhD student will be required to draw on data from the literature, analyze unpublished data (particularly Capture-Marking-Recapture data) and conduct interviews with experts (including international experts) to build the most realistic models possible.
Reports for the French government are expected, as are international scientific publications.
Supervision of trainees is possible.
Expected skills: Strong skills in statistical data modeling, particularly in the development of individual-centered models, population dynamics (CMR data, Leslie matrix) and spatial modeling (GPS tracking data).

Contexte de travail

The PhD student will be based at CEFE in the HAIR team and in the MAD team, both of which are heavily involved in reconciling the development of renewable energies with the protection of biodiversity. Three additional people will be recruited for this project (two post-docs and a research engineer-programmer) to complete the project team.

Contraintes et risques

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