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Reference : FR636-EVEMAG-057
Workplace : PARIS 05
Date of publication : Monday, October 11, 2021
Type of Contract : FTC Scientist
Contract Period : 6 months
Expected date of employment : 1 December 2021
Proportion of work : Full time
Remuneration : From 2743 € to 4241 € gross according to expérience
Desired level of education : PhD
Experience required : Indifferent
Analysis of statistical methodologies aimed at improving the reliability of decadal climate forecasts.
- Analysis of decadal forecast simulations
- Contribution to the development of a method for the statistical increase of the number of members
- Physical and statistical diagnostics
Thesis in oceanography or climatology / Ability to analyse data (knowledge of data processing software, graphics), knowledge of the dynamics of the climate system / Independence, good communication skills, group work and ability to summarise.
Decadal forecasting is an emerging theme. It aims to improve climate forecasting on a ten-year scale by taking better account of the initial conditions of the ocean. Several research groups in climatology have been engaged in this exercise for the last ten years. Recently, a publication showed that decadal forecasting systems were capable of anticipating decadal variations in the North Atlantic Oscillation, the primary mode of variability in the North Atlantic circulation. However, the same publication showed that a large number of members were needed to do this. New approaches have been proposed to artificially increase the number of members of an ensemble by using the overlaps of the different hindcasts launched each year. The present contract proposes to evaluate and improve these methods in an objective manner. This work is part of the European project EUCP which is entering its final year.
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