Description du sujet de thèse

Evidence for the possibility of abrupt climate change comes from indirect paleoclimatic data, theoretical considerations, as well as from climate models and comprehensive Earth System Models. Nevertheless, the effects of predicted abrupt climate and ecosystem changes on biodiversity remain uncertain and poorly understood. This thesis aims to describe and understand the link between predicted abrupt climate change and biodiversity response, to characterize spatially and temporally the persistence of different species and to project their vulnerability under future climate change scenarios.

Contexte de travail

There is growing concern that ongoing human-induced changes in climate and land use could trigger abrupt and virtually irreversible transitions in components of the Earth's climate system, as well as in various ecosystems. Evidence for the potential of abrupt climate change comes from paleoclimate proxy data, theoretical considerations, and also from climate and Earth system models. Nevertheless, the likelihood of future abrupt climate and ecosystem transitions remains uncertain and poorly understood. In particular, significant gaps persist in research on how abrupt responses of climatic and ecosystem components of the Earth system could impact species survival and global biodiversity.

While it is now well documented that global changes have a predominantly negative impact on global biodiversity, future climate change is expected to have an even greater—and still largely unknown—effect on the extinction risk of species unable to adapt or reproduce. This has long been a major focus of interest for conservation biologists.

This thesis aims to describe and understand the link between projected abrupt climate change and biodiversity response. Using high-resolution data, the goal is to spatially and temporally characterize the persistence of different species and to project their vulnerability under future climate change scenarios.

Contraintes et risques

None