Missions

Modelling the oil market:
A first output of this project will consist of an online tool allowing the user to define a carbon budget, a climate coalition, and the coalition's oil producer partners, which would then estimate the coalition's oil demand and the oil reserves of the coalition together with its partners'. This will provide a first indication of the energy security that the partners would bring to the coalition. The researcher would also simulate the associated temperature trajectory and the coalition's carbon revenues, making simplifying assumptions on oil prices and demand outside the coalition.
The final output of this project will be a characterization of the possible geopolitical alliances and their implications on the carbon price, fossil fuel prices, and the gains and losses by country.

Activités

To conduct realistic simulations of the oil market in different scenarios, the researcher will combine the most detailed models and data sources to build a state-of-the-art model of the oil market. They will incorporate the realistic extraction cost functions and the modelling of extraction capacity of Okullo & Reynès (2016) into a numerical version of the model of Benchekroun, van der Meijden & Withagen (2023). The oil producers will be made asymmetric and their characteristics calibrated using the fine-grained procedure used by Coulomb et al. (2023).

Compétences

PhD on the economic modelling of the oil market. He/she will need to master data processing software such as R. The candidate is also expected to be curious and imaginative, to challenge the team by proposing radically different approaches, for example.

Contexte de travail

This research will be carried out at the CNRS Centre International de Recherches sur l'Environnement et le Développement (CIRED), located at Nogent-sur-Marne (in the Bois de Vincennes). CIRED is a multidisciplinary research center that studies the interaction between social and environmental challenges. The CDD will be carried out under the responsibility of a CNRS research fellow.

Contraintes et risques

None.