Missions

Characterising changes in intense rainfall is essential to ensure better adaptation of natural risk prevention guidelines to a changing climate. At the request of the French direction générale de la prévention des risques du ministère de la transition écologique, de la biodiversité, de la forêt, de la mer et de la pêche, an initial study was carried out in 2024 to estimate changes in daily rainfall with a 100-year return period (cumulative daily rainfall with a 1% probability of exceedance over a period of one year) based on an existing set of regional climate simulations (Explore2-ADAMONT, https://www.drias-climat.fr/accompagnement/sections/401). As a direct continuation of this study, the selected candidate will be in charge of studying the evolution of sub-daily rainfall with a return period of 100 years in mainland France within the framework of the TRACC (the French government's reference warming trajectory for adaptation to climate change) with a warming level of +4°C over France. This work straddles the boundary between applied research and its operational translation, with a strong emphasis on knowledge transfer to update public risk prevention policies. The aim will be to produce and analyse diagnoses for sub-daily time steps (1h, 6h, 12h), based on state-of-the-art climate simulations, including new kilometre-scale climate simulations for France, which provide clear added value for the representation of sub-daily rainfall extremes.

Activités

- Literature overview of existing studies on changes in intense sub-daily rainfall, particularly in France, and more specifically studies based on the new generation of kilometre-scale climate models.
- Verification of the consistency of the climate change signal at the daily time step between the simulations carried out with the regional climate models used in the 2024 study and those carried out with the new generation of kilometre-scale climate models.
- Preparation of various climate model simulation data sets for the +4°C warming level over mainland France, whose biases may need to be corrected at an hourly time step.
- Production of different sets of maximum annual rainfall indicators for daily and sub-daily time steps at the +4°C warming level and comparison with previous studies and the results obtained with the models of the 2024 study.
- Evaluation of changes in maximum annual sub-daily rainfall (1h, 6h, 12h) with a 100-year return period at different levels of warming and study of the spatial variability of these changes over France using spatial sampling methods or GEV (Generalised Extreme Values) type approaches with the aim of defining homogeneous areas of change.
- Analysis and discussion of the results in terms of the various sources of uncertainty (internal variability and climate models). Definition of one or more values for the change in sub-daily rainfall (1h, 6h, 12h) with a 100-year return period for the warming level of +4°C, as well as the associated uncertainty ranges, according to the spatial zoning defined above.
- Oral presentations and internal reports for the French direction générale de la prévention des risques as well as publication of the results in a peer-reviewed journal.

Compétences

General knowledge:
- The candidate must have a PhD thesis in climate sciences.
- Experience specifically in the field of climate or hydrological extremes studies, climate data science and/or kilometric regional climate modelling would be appreciated.
Technical skills :
- Knowledge of scientific analysis tools (e.g. Python, ncl, R, etc.)
- Familiarity with linux operating systems
- Manipulating NetCDF-format files (nco/cdo operators, etc.)
- Expertise in statistical tools and studies

Skills :
- Autonomy and organisational skills
- Analytical skills and rigour in scientific development and analysis
- Motivation and scientific curiosity
- Ability to communicate both orally and in writing
- Spoken and written French at C2 level minimum
- Spoken and written English at B2 level minimum

People skills :
- Good interpersonal skills and ability to work as part of a team
- Availability and responsiveness

Contexte de travail

The work will be carried out at the CNRM (Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques, UMR 3589, www.umr-cnrm.fr), in collaboration with the Direction des Services Météorologiques (DSM) and the Direction de la Climatologie et des Services Climatiques (DCSC) of Météo-France.
The person recruited will join the MOSCA (Modélisation du Système Climat régionaAl, http://www.umr-cnrm.fr/spip.php?article1035&lang=en) team of the CNRM's climate and large scale modelling group (GMGEC), whose aim is to improve knowledge of regional climates using a dedicated modelling approach. The selected candidate will also work in contact with the Direction des Services Météorologiques at Météo-France.
For further information, please contact cecile.caillaud@meteo.fr

Contraintes et risques

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