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Portail > Offres > Offre FR636-ALERUB-034 - Développement de méthodes statistiques pour simuler des ensembles d'événements climatiques extrêmes H/F

Statistical method development to simulate ensembles of extreme climate events (H/F)

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Français - Anglais

Date Limite Candidature : jeudi 21 octobre 2021

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General information

Reference : FR636-ALERUB-034
Workplace : GUYANCOURT
Date of publication : Thursday, September 30, 2021
Type of Contract : FTC Scientist
Contract Period : 24 months
Expected date of employment : 1 January 2022
Proportion of work : Full time
Remuneration : Salary between 2 728,25€ and 3 881,21€
Desired level of education : PhD
Experience required : 1 to 4 years

Missions

The European project XAIDA aims at developing and applying methods of artificial intelligence to the attribution of extreme events. WP5 of XAIDA is dedicated to the simulation of unprecedented climate events. LSCE developed a method based on the empirical importance sampling of stochastic weather generators. The goal of the proposed work is to optimize the parameters of this method (analog stochastic weather generator) by determining the best predictors for analogs (in collaboration with WP3), to simulate large ensembles of heatwaves and cold spells, in collaboration with WP6 and WP7 of XAIDA. This optimization will be performed to simulate the most intense events that are plausible in a present and future climate. Colleagues from ETH Zurich develop a method that is slightly different (called “event boosting”) to generate those simulations. We will compare those two approaches.

Activities

The candidate will first learn the necessary tools (circulation analogs, stochastic weather generator, importance sampling). The candidate will optimize key physical and mathematical parameters for the simulation of heatwaves and cold spells, with verifications through cross validation, and using methods from artificial intelligence. Simulations will be done with data from multi-model simulations of CMIP6, on the present and future periods. The candidate will perform statistical verifications of the physical realism of ensemble simulations. Case studies will be proposed for recent extreme events (or events that occur during the course of the project). It will be necessary to interact with other methodological WPs (WP3: artificial intelligence; WP4: causality) and application WPs (WP6: heatwaves; WP7: atmospheric dynamics).

Skills

We are looking for a highly motivated candidate for a competitive research activity in climate sciences. A PhD in meteorology/climatology, or applied statistics, or physics is required. It is indispensable to master tools of statistical modeling. Research experience in statistical climatology is desired. A good knowledge on climate data (CMIP6 simulations, reanalyses) is welcome. A reasonable command of the R language is important. It will be necessary to work with LSCE teams, and other European teams of the XAIDA project.

Work Context

The work will be done at LSCE (in the south west suburb of Paris), in the ESTIMR team, under the supervision of P. Yiou (LSCE) and A. Jézéquel (LMD, Paris). Strong interactions with ETH Zurich (E. Fischer and S. Sippel) will be necessary to compare results from methods of simulations. Results will be presented at XAIDA workshops and international conferences (e.g., EGU, AGU, EMS).

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