Ph.D. Position in Statistical Seismology and Earthquake Hazard (M/F)

Job Description

Thesis Subject

Characterizing the spatio-temporal variations in earthquake occurrence rates is a key challenge in statistical seismology and seismic hazard assessment. Seismic catalogs reveal significant variability in seismicity rates, resulting from both underlying tectonic processes and inter-event triggering mechanisms. ETAS (Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence) models are now widely used to represent this triggered seismicity, in which each event generates a sequence of aftershocks (Ogata, 1988). However, distinguishing background seismicity from this triggered seismicity (ETAS contribution) remains an open issue, particularly during atypical seismic events such as seismic swarms (see, e.g., De Barros et al., 2020) or low-frequency earthquakes (LFE) (see, e.g., Baba et al., 2020).

The objective of this thesis is to develop a Bayesian inversion approach that allows for the joint estimation of spatio-temporal variations in background seismicity and the ETAS component across multiple scales. Initially, only temporal variability will be studied, before extending the method to spatial variations. Inference will be based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. The methods developed will be applied to seismic catalogs from tectonically active regions, volcanic settings (Gulf of Corinth), or subduction zones (such as those in Japan or the Cascades) where swarms and LFE events are observed. The objective will be, in particular, to identify anomalous variations in background seismicity that may reveal fluid migration, changes in stress, or episodes of slow slip. The method will also be applied to the seismic catalog for metropolitan France, where induced seismicity can be observed near geothermal or injection sites (see, e.g., Jacquemond et al., 2024) and where its quantification and characterization are important for better estimating the seismic hazard around these sites.

Your Work Environment

This project builds on several previous projects undertaken by the proposed supervisory team (Laporte et al., 2025; Colin et al., 2026) focusing on the study of temporal variations in seismicity statistics. The supervisory team will consist of S. Durand (LGL-TPE, CR CNRS), a specialist in the statistical study of seismicity, and M. Métois (LGL-TPE, MCF UCBL), a specialist in tectonic processes in subduction zones and in GNSS. The project will also involve T. Bodin (ICM, Barcelona), a specialist in Bayesian approaches, and our colleagues at EDF, P. Arroucau and G. Daniel, specialists in seismic hazard.

Compensation and benefits

Compensation

2300 € gross monthly

Annual leave and RTT

44 jours

Remote Working practice and compensation

Pratique et indemnisation du TT

Transport

Prise en charge à 75% du coût et forfait mobilité durable jusqu’à 300€

About the offer

About the CNRS

The CNRS is a major player in fundamental research on a global scale. The CNRS is the only French organization active in all scientific fields. Its unique position as a multi-specialist allows it to bring together different disciplines to address the most important challenges of the contemporary world, in connection with the actors of change.

CNRS

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