12-month fixed-term research position (M/F): New climate prediction approaches for Western Europe over the coming decades

Job Description

Missions

Anticipating climate evolution over the coming decades, so that necessary adaptation measures can be implemented as soon as possible, represents a major societal challenge. It is also a significant scientific endeavor. Over this period, internal climate variability often dominates as a source of uncertainty. Classical climate projections (sometimes called "uninitialized" because they start from random initial conditions) only aim to reproduce the signal driven by external forcings such as greenhouse gases, i.e., the forced variability. To reduce uncertainties arising from internal variability, decadal predictions (referred to as "initialized") seek to forecast not only this forced variability but also the potentially predictable component of internal variability, for a few years up to a decade or two. To achieve this, the climate model is initialized from a state as close as possible to the actual state of the climate system at the time of initialization.
Despite over a decade of development, decadal predictions still have significant limitations and have not yet fulfilled all their initial promises. The objective of this research position is to develop innovative approaches to improve climate predictions for the coming decade(s), in terms of both predictive skill and practical usability. A new methodology for producing drift-free decadal predictions will be developed and tested. This methodology is based on the use of the "particle filter" method, adapted to the context of climate prediction, with the goal of gradually guiding the model toward the observed trajectory. The results obtained with this method will be compared to those from an alternative approach we are currently developing. This approach, called "blending," uses the broadest possible set of existing climate projections and decadal predictions, aiming to optimally combine the information provided by decadal predictions, observations, and climate projections. The goal is to obtain the best possible seamless (i.e., statistically continuous) information from the coming year to the end of the century.

Activity

-Development of a particle-filter-based climate prediction system.
-Production of climate hindcasts using the particle-filter method.
-Evaluation of hindcasts and calculation of predictability scores.
-Physical analysis of hindcasts and understanding of predictability mechanisms.
-Comparison with results from the "blending" method.

Your Profil

Skills

-PhD in climate science or a related relevant field; experience in climate modeling would be an asset.
-Research and publication experience in a relevant field.
-Ability to conduct independent research while actively contributing to a research team.
-Experience in processing large spatiotemporal geophysical datasets and running climate simulations.
-Proficiency in Python programming and Linux shell scripting.
-Proficiency in English.
-Strong oral and written communication skills.

Your Work Environment

This work is part of the research conducted by the Climate Team at CECI on climate variability and change. CECI is a joint research unit between the European Centre for Research and Advanced Training in Scientific Computation (Cerfacs), the French National Centre for Scientific Research (CNRS), and the French Research Institute for Development (IRD).

-Contract duration: 12 months, starting from mid-July 2026.
-Work location: CECI (CNRS/Cerfacs/IRD), Toulouse.
-Employer: CNRS.
-Salary: A competitive salary will be offered, commensurate with experience and qualifications.
-Work environment: Inclusive and equitable.
-Working conditions: Flexible, with the option to telework up to two days per week.

Constraints and risks

NA

Compensation and benefits

Compensation

€3041–€4216 gross per month, depending on experience.

Annual leave and RTT

44 jours

Remote Working practice and compensation

Pratique et indemnisation du TT

Transport

Prise en charge à 75% du coût et forfait mobilité durable jusqu’à 300€

About the offer

About the CNRS

The CNRS is a major player in fundamental research on a global scale. The CNRS is the only French organization active in all scientific fields. Its unique position as a multi-specialist allows it to bring together different disciplines to address the most important challenges of the contemporary world, in connection with the actors of change.

CNRS

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